Geopolitics
Geopolitical events affecting markets. Conflicts, trade disputes, sanctions, and diplomatic developments with material market impact.
US imposes 50% tariffs on select Canadian goods under Section 338
President Trump signed three proclamations on July 20, 2026 imposing 50% tariffs on Canadian wine, dairy, hockey equipment and cement, taking effect in 30 days.
US announces 50% tariffs on Canadian goods; Canadian dollar weakens
The White House announced 50% tariffs on most Canadian goods on 21 July 2026, covering automotive, alcohol, dairy, and other products, including some previously under USMCA protection. The Canadian dollar weakened following the announcement.
US military completes seventh consecutive night of strikes on Iran
The US military struck Iran on 18 July 2026, its seventh consecutive night of operations. The sixth night on 16 July targeted bridges, railways, and airport facilities; Iran retaliated across the Persian Gulf. Gold rose during the escalation per prior reporting.
Nikkei falls 4.25%, oil rises to $81 as Middle East strikes hit markets
The Nikkei fell 4.25% and Nasdaq futures declined 1% on 17 July 2026; oil rose a further 2.6% to approximately $81 per barrel in European trading following Middle East strikes, while the Indian rupee approached record lows before Reserve Bank of India intervention.
UK nationalises British Steel Scunthorpe site; China expresses strong dissatisfaction
The UK government took British Steel's Scunthorpe steelworks into public ownership on 16 July 2026 under the Steel Industry (Nationalisation) Act, expropriating the facility from Jingye. China's Ministry of Commerce issued a formal dissatisfaction statement on 17 July 2026.
Shabana Mahmood appointed UK Chancellor under new PM Andy Burnham
GBPUSD, UK gilts, and the FTSE 100 recorded positive moves following the announced appointment of Shabana Mahmood as Chancellor of the Exchequer under incoming Prime Minister Andy Burnham, who replaced Keir Starmer as UK government leader on 15 July 2026.
Trump proposed then reversed 20% Hormuz transit fee on 14 July
President Trump announced and then withdrew a proposed 20% fee on cargo transiting the Strait of Hormuz on 14 July 2026, citing trade and investment deals as an alternative; Hapag-Lloyd publicly criticised the proposal.
UK Covid inquiry: £10bn wasted on PPE, VIP lane criticised
The UK Covid-19 Inquiry found nearly £10bn of the £14.9bn spent on pandemic PPE was wasted, condemning the government's 'VIP lane' contracting process.
UK proscribes Iran's IRGC as terrorist organisation
Britain designated the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps a terrorist organisation on 13 July 2026, making membership or public support a criminal offence carrying up to life imprisonment.
US strikes 90 Iranian military sites; S&P 500 futures rose 0.2%
US forces struck ~90 Iranian military sites around the Strait of Hormuz on 10 July 2026, following strikes on 8–9 July. Iran retaliated against US facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar; S&P 500 futures rose 0.2% at 7:43 a.m. ET on 9 July.
Ukrainian drones struck Russian fuel tankers and trucks; Brent and WTI linked
Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian fuel infrastructure included strikes on two tankers in Taganrog Bay and 360 reported truck attacks in one week; Russia announced domestic energy sales bans and increased fuel imports amid a reported nationwide petrol shortage.
Trump ends Iran ceasefire; WTI and Brent surge 8% amid Hormuz closure threat
WTI and Brent crude rose approximately 8% after Trump declared the Iran ceasefire over at the NATO Summit in Ankara and revoked Iranian oil sanctions waivers; U.S. equity futures in SPY and QQQ fell, bond yields spiked, and the VIX rose.
US strikes on Iran; Brent crude surges, equities and dollar move
Brent crude rose ~$4 to settle above $76, reaching $80 intraday; WTI rose 6% to $74.90. The Dow fell 1.09%, S&P 500 posted minor losses, FTSE 100 and Nikkei fell, Treasury yields rose 5bp to 4.58%, and the DXY strengthened.
Macron visits Syria in first trip by an EU head of state since Assad fell
Emmanuel Macron arrived in Damascus on 6 July 2026 for a two-day state visit, accompanied by the CEOs of TotalEnergies and CMA CGM, with Syrian reconstruction among the key themes.
Trump spoke separately with Putin and Zelenskyy on 6 July 2026
US President Trump held separate calls with Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy on 6 July 2026, coinciding with Ukrainian strikes on Russian targets and a Russian barrage on Kyiv. A subsequent Trump-Zelenskyy meeting was announced for the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey.
Ukraine drones strike St Petersburg oil terminal and port
Ukrainian drones hit an oil terminal in St Petersburg's Kirovsky district and the port of Vysotsk overnight on 4 July 2026, with 72 drones shot down across the region, Russian officials said.
Trump ends USMCA trilateral framework; CAD, MXN, Ford, GM affected
President Trump announced on 1 July 2026 that the US will not renew USMCA, pursuing separate bilateral agreements with Canada and Mexico instead; the Canadian dollar, Mexican peso, Ford (F), and General Motors (GM) were among the instruments and companies named in connection with the shift.
US-Iran Doha talks announced after Strait of Hormuz military clashes
Trump announced via Truth Social on 29 June 2026 that US and Iranian delegations would hold indirect talks in Doha following weekend military clashes in the Strait of Hormuz; WTI crude was reported in connection with the Hormuz shipping disruption.
US-Iran ceasefire reports; S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures gained
S&P 500 futures (ES) and Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ) rose on 28 June 2026 following reports that the US and Iran remained within an existing ceasefire framework, avoiding further military escalation.
Venezuela earthquake kills ~1,500; PDVSA infrastructure disruption reported
A 28 June 2026 earthquake in Venezuela left approximately 1,500 dead and 50,000 unaccounted for, with La Guaira state identified as the worst-affected area. PDVSA and Vermilion Energy (VET) were reported as holding energy infrastructure and upstream assets in the affected country.
China blacklists 20 Japanese entities including Mitsubishi Heavy, Komatsu
China's commerce ministry added 20 Japanese entities to its dual-use export control list on 29 June 2026, including Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (8058.T), Mitsubishi Electric (6752.T), and Komatsu, restricting their access to Chinese-supplied materials.
Trump threatens 100% tariff on countries with digital services taxes
President Trump vowed on Truth Social to impose an immediate 100% tariff on goods from any country that levies a digital services tax on US companies, saying the measure would supersede existing trade deals.
Israel and Lebanon sign US-brokered framework deal
Israel and Lebanon signed an initial trilateral framework agreement at the US State Department on June 26, 2026, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio presiding and announcing $100 million in humanitarian aid.
Greek national charged in UK with assisting Iran intelligence against journalist
Ioannis Aidinidis, 46, was charged under the National Security Act 2023 over the alleged targeting of a UK-based journalist at Iran International.