Sweden's centre-left opposition bloc took a lead in an exit poll after a close general election on 13 September 2026 that, if confirmed, would return the Social Democrats to power and keep the far-right Sweden Democrats out of government. The four-party bloc led by former Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson secured 51.3% in an exit poll published by national broadcaster SVT, against 46.8% for the incumbent centre-right government of Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson. The Sweden Democrats dropped to third place in the exit poll after having been Sweden's second-biggest party at the previous election.
Preliminary figures from the Swedish Election Authority showed the Social Democrats on 27.8% of the vote, the Moderates on 19.8% and the Sweden Democrats in third at 17.7%. With 50% of votes counted, the two main blocs were separated by only around 20,000 votes, according to SVT, leaving the final outcome uncertain as counting continued. The election determined all 349 seats in the Riksdag, elected by open list proportional representation with a 4% national threshold; the Riksdag in turn elects the prime minister.
Investors have been closely watching the welfare and education sectors given the contrasting policy platforms of the two blocs. The Social Democrats have campaigned to ban profits in publicly funded schools during the next parliamentary term, putting education provider AcadeMedia AB (ACAD.ST) in the firing line; more than half of the company's revenue comes from its Swedish preschool and school operations. Listed care providers Attendo AB (ATT.ST), Ambea AB (AMBEA.ST) and Humana AB (HUM.ST) face potential policy changes if the Left Party exerts influence over a new government. Commercially run companies provide around a fifth of services in Sweden's publicly funded welfare sector, making that segment one of the most direct links between the election outcome and the stock market.
The future of Sweden's nuclear build-out, taxes on the wealthy and the fate of the krona were also flagged as key investor concerns ahead of the vote. Kristersson had indicated before the election that he could form a governing coalition formally including the Sweden Democrats, an arrangement that had previously taken the form of the Tidö Agreement following the 2022 general election. That agreement allowed Kristersson to govern as prime minister with Sweden Democrat backing, though the party did not hold cabinet positions at that time. On 13 March 2026, the Liberals and Sweden Democrats announced an accord known as 'The Sweden Promise', which would have granted SD cabinet positions had the Tidö coalition secured a majority — a scenario that the exit poll results appeared to foreclose.
The 2026 contest was the first parliamentary election since Sweden acceded to NATO on 7 March 2024, after more than 200 years of military non-alignment. A euro referendum featured in the Sweden Promise agreement as a policy goal to be put to voters coinciding with the 2030 election, though a poll from June 2026 showed only 29% of Swedes supporting euro adoption against 52% opposed. The Sweden Democrats have pledged to resist any move toward scrapping the domestic currency. Final seat allocations and government formation had not been determined at the time of publication.
Sources: Sky News, Bloomberg, BBC News, Euronews, Wikipedia