Geopolitics
Geopolitical events affecting markets. Conflicts, trade disputes, sanctions, and diplomatic developments with material market impact.
Seven nights of US strikes on Iran; Hormuz transit collapses amid blockade
A highly active week dominated by US-Iran military escalation, Strait of Hormuz disruption, a significant oil price surge, and a sharp IBM earnings miss.
IEA warns of economic shock as Hormuz disruption lifts LNG and oil prices
A risk-averse European session dominated by Strait of Hormuz escalation, with energy prices surging, equities slipping, and safe-haven demand visible across rates and currencies.
U.S. forces strike Iran-linked tanker near Kharg Island, Hormuz tensions deepen
An active overnight session dominated by Hormuz escalation, a new U.S.-Brazil tariff action, and energy supply disruptions across multiple fronts.
US strikes Iran; Strait of Hormuz traffic halts as Brent approaches $80
A volatile European session dominated by US-Iran military escalation, surging oil prices, sharp equity declines, and a record collapse in SK Hynix shares.
US and Iran exchange fresh strikes; Hormuz tanker traffic near standstill
Overnight session dominated by renewed US-Iran military escalation, a 4% oil surge, and broad Asian equity declines on Strait of Hormuz supply fears.
Iran declares Strait of Hormuz closed after third US military strike
A week dominated by escalating US-Iran military exchanges, Hormuz closure, surging oil prices, and the landmark SK Hynix Nasdaq listing.
Hormuz tanker traffic grinds to near-halt as US-Iran strikes intensify
A week dominated by sharp US-Iran military escalation, a near-complete halt of Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic, and a 7% surge in crude oil prices across five sessions.
US strikes Iranian sites; Tehran retaliates and reasserts Hormuz control
A volatile European session dominated by renewed US-Iran military exchange, higher oil prices, the SK Hynix ADR debut, and a bidding war for easyJet.
Hormuz traffic halted as US-Iran ceasefire collapses; SK Hynix raises $26.5bn
An active overnight session dominated by US-Iran military escalation, record SK Hynix US listing, and a Japan PPI beat reinforcing BOJ rate-hike expectations.
Hormuz shipping near-halted as US strikes Iran for second consecutive day
A volatile overnight session dominated by US-Iran military escalation, Hormuz shipping disruption, and sharp oil price moves with equity futures under pressure.
Trump ends Iran ceasefire; WTI and Brent surge 8% amid Hormuz closure threat
WTI and Brent crude rose approximately 8% after Trump declared the Iran ceasefire over at the NATO Summit in Ankara and revoked Iranian oil sanctions waivers; U.S. equity futures in SPY and QQQ fell, bond yields spiked, and the VIX rose.
Trump declares US-Iran ceasefire over after strikes on 80 sites
A volatile European session dominated by US-Iran escalation, with oil prices surging up to 8%, equity futures falling sharply, and German Bund yields crossing 3%.
US strikes on Iran; Brent crude surges, equities and dollar move
Brent crude rose ~$4 to settle above $76, reaching $80 intraday; WTI rose 6% to $74.90. The Dow fell 1.09%, S&P 500 posted minor losses, FTSE 100 and Nikkei fell, Treasury yields rose 5bp to 4.58%, and the DXY strengthened.
US strikes 80+ Iranian targets; Brent surges 3% to $76.58
An active overnight session dominated by US military strikes on Iran and a sharp crude oil rally, with Asian equities broadly under pressure.
Macron visits Syria in first trip by an EU head of state since Assad fell
Emmanuel Macron arrived in Damascus on 6 July 2026 for a two-day state visit, accompanied by the CEOs of TotalEnergies and CMA CGM, with Syrian reconstruction among the key themes.
LNG carrier struck in Strait of Hormuz as Iran warns talks may stall
A volatile overnight session shaped by renewed Hormuz tensions, a sharp Korean equity decline, and conflicting oil price signals from Saudi pricing and Hormuz incidents.
Trump spoke separately with Putin and Zelenskyy on 6 July 2026
US President Trump held separate calls with Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy on 6 July 2026, coinciding with Ukrainian strikes on Russian targets and a Russian barrage on Kyiv. A subsequent Trump-Zelenskyy meeting was announced for the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey.
Ukraine drones strike St Petersburg oil terminal and port
Ukrainian drones hit an oil terminal in St Petersburg's Kirovsky district and the port of Vysotsk overnight on 4 July 2026, with 72 drones shot down across the region, Russian officials said.
Russia launches large-scale Ukraine strike as Asian chip stocks fall 6%
A busy overnight session marked by Russia's major Ukraine strike, a sharp Asia tech selloff, and oil slipping for a third session amid Iran talks progress.
Trump ends USMCA trilateral framework; CAD, MXN, Ford, GM affected
President Trump announced on 1 July 2026 that the US will not renew USMCA, pursuing separate bilateral agreements with Canada and Mexico instead; the Canadian dollar, Mexican peso, Ford (F), and General Motors (GM) were among the instruments and companies named in connection with the shift.
US-Iran Doha talks announced after Strait of Hormuz military clashes
Trump announced via Truth Social on 29 June 2026 that US and Iranian delegations would hold indirect talks in Doha following weekend military clashes in the Strait of Hormuz; WTI crude was reported in connection with the Hormuz shipping disruption.
US-Iran ceasefire reports; S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures gained
S&P 500 futures (ES) and Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ) rose on 28 June 2026 following reports that the US and Iran remained within an existing ceasefire framework, avoiding further military escalation.
Venezuela earthquake kills ~1,500; PDVSA infrastructure disruption reported
A 28 June 2026 earthquake in Venezuela left approximately 1,500 dead and 50,000 unaccounted for, with La Guaira state identified as the worst-affected area. PDVSA and Vermilion Energy (VET) were reported as holding energy infrastructure and upstream assets in the affected country.
China blacklists 20 Japanese entities including Mitsubishi Heavy, Komatsu
China's commerce ministry added 20 Japanese entities to its dual-use export control list on 29 June 2026, including Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (8058.T), Mitsubishi Electric (6752.T), and Komatsu, restricting their access to Chinese-supplied materials.