Central Banks
Coverage of Federal Reserve, ECB, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, and other central bank communications, policy decisions, and market reactions.
RBI raises repo rate 25bps; rupee approaches record lows
The Reserve Bank of India raised its repo rate by 25 basis points on 7 October 2026, its first increase in approximately four years; the rupee weakened following the decision, approaching record lows against the dollar, as the move fell short of trader expectations for more aggressive tightening.
RBA raises cash rate to 4.6%; Australian consumer sentiment falls 4.7%
The Westpac–Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index fell 4.7% to 80.4 in October 2026 following the RBA's fourth rate rise of the year, with the AUD/USD identified as the currency directly linked to the decision. No ASX 200 price move was reported in the brief.
Trump demands Powell resignation over Fed headquarters renovation: 30 September 2026
Donald Trump posted on TruthSocial on 30 September 2026 demanding Jerome Powell's resignation as Federal Reserve Chair, citing alleged mismanagement of the Fed headquarters renovat
RBA and Bank of England warn AI investment collapse poses financial stability risks
The RBA's 1 October 2026 stability review flagged a potential AI investment collapse as a material vulnerability. Bank of England Governor Bailey on 30 September 2026 warned rapid AI-related debt growth poses financial stability risks.
RBA raises cash rate 25bp to 4.6%; Australian dollar falls to 0.6999
The RBA unanimously raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.6% on 29 September 2026, its highest since 2011. AUD/USD traded near 0.6999 following the decision, while the US dollar strengthened against six of seven major currencies tracked.
SNB holds rate at 0%, softens FX intervention language; franc weakens
The Swiss National Bank held its policy rate at 0% on 24 September 2026 and revised its FX intervention language to indicate reduced urgency; EURCHF rose to 0.9420 and USDCHF reached levels last seen in May 2025 following the announcement.
Philadelphia Fed's Paulson signals further 'modest' rate rises possible
Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson stated on 24 September 2026 that additional rate increases may be needed to return inflation to the 2% target, describing anticipated moves as 'modest' and indicating the tightening cycle may not be complete.
RBNZ warns inflation may exceed forecasts; October rate rise flagged
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand stated on 22 September 2026 that near-term inflation may surpass its latest forecasts, citing rising oil prices, and raised the possibility of an additional interest rate increase as early as October.
Bank of Japan raises rate 25bp to 1.25%; yen weakens, Nikkei gains
The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25% on 18 September 2026; USDJPY rose toward 158.00 and the yen fell 0.72%, while the Nikkei 225 gained 1.5% and the 10-year Japanese Government Bond yield declined following the announcement.
August CPI beat raises Fed hike probability to 90%; 10-year yield nears 5%
August 2026 CPI exceeded expectations on headline and core measures; bond traders priced a 90% Fed hike probability for the following week and two full hikes by year-end. The 10-year Treasury yield approached 5% amid a global bond selloff.
US August CPI core monthly beat; Fed rate-hike odds rose to 82%
August 2026 US CPI data showed headline inflation at 3.4% year-on-year and core CPI monthly at 0.3% against a 0.2% consensus; market-implied probability of a Federal Reserve rate increase at the next meeting rose from 68% to 82%, and the US Dollar Index strengthened following the release.
Bank of England holds rate at 3.75% in 6-3 MPC vote
The Bank of England MPC voted 6-3 to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% on 30 July 2026, with three members favouring an increase. GBPUSD and UK 10-year gilts were identified in the brief as instruments connected to the decision.
Australia June CPI prints 3.8%, below 4.0% consensus; RBA August hike probability drops
Australia's June 2024 CPI printed at 3.8% year-on-year, missing the 4.0% consensus, with the monthly reading falling 0.1% against an expected 0.2% rise. Market-implied probability of an RBA August rate hike dropped to approximately 4%, and traders reduced bets on further hikes for 2024.
Taiwan 5-year bond yield hits highest since 2008 after weak auction
Taiwan's five-year government bond yield rose to its highest level since 2008 on 28 July 2026, following a disappointing 20-year government bond auction and market pricing of a potential central bank rate increase.
ECB held all three key rates unchanged on 23 July 2026
The ECB kept its three key interest rates unchanged on 23 July 2026, citing volatile energy prices elevated by the Middle East conflict as a primary uncertainty factor, with inflation remaining above the 2% medium-term target.
US Treasury yields rose 14 July as Fed July hike expectations increased
US Treasury yields rose on 14 July 2026 as bond traders repriced the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the July meeting, ahead of June inflation data and Congressional testimony from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh; the two-year and ten-year Treasury yields both moved higher.
Fed Chair Warsh congressional testimony on inflation: 14 July 2026
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh testified before the House Financial Services Committee on 14 July 2026, stating that the Fed has zero tolerance for persistently elevated inflati
Bullard said Warsh may reduce Fed forward guidance, per Marketwatch
Former St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on 8 July 2026 that incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh may reduce the central bank's use of forward guidance, according to Marketwatch TOP. No confirmed statement from Warsh or the Federal Reserve Board was included in the reporting.
Bank of England proposes easing leverage ratio for UK banks
The BoE's FPC proposed softening the leverage ratio and enhancing capital buffer usability on 7 July, while its Financial Stability Report warned of rising risks from AI, geopolitical tensions and debt-fuelled equity investment.
Fed Chair Warsh rejects forward guidance at Sintra; Treasury yields rise
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh stated at the ECB Forum in Sintra on 1 July 2026 that the Fed would not provide forward guidance on future rate moves; US 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields rose, and the S&P 500, tracked via SPY, swung from pre-market losses to intraday recovery.
Supreme Court 5-4 blocks Trump's removal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook
The US Supreme Court ruled 5-4 on 29 June 2026 that President Trump lacked authority to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook without cause, preserving her board position while her legal challenge proceeds.
Supreme Court blocks Trump from firing Fed Governor Cook
The US Supreme Court ruled 5-4 that Trump cannot immediately remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, leaving a lower-court injunction in place while her lawsuit proceeds.
Ex-NY Fed President Dudley publicly criticised Warsh's FOMC statement reform plans
Former New York Fed President Bill Dudley publicly warned on 25 June 2026 that proposed FOMC statement reforms under Chairman Kevin Warsh risked confusing markets and the Fed itself; US Treasuries and the US dollar were identified in the brief as instruments sensitive to FOMC communication shifts.
ECB May 2026 survey: short-term inflation expectations fell to 3.5%
The ECB's May 2026 Consumer Expectations Survey recorded short-term inflation expectations declining to 3.5% from 4.0%, with medium-term expectations in the 2.4–2.9% range; separately, Bloomberg Markets reported market pricing for ECB rate increases in 2026 had fallen to below a 25 basis point hike.