The US Bureau of Labor Statistics released August consumer price index data on 11 September 2026, showing headline CPI at 3.4% year-on-year, matching expectations, with a monthly gain of 0.4% as anticipated. Core CPI fell to 2.4% year-on-year from 2.5% in July, but the monthly core reading came in at 0.3% against a 0.2% consensus estimate. Supercore inflation — services excluding shelter — reached its highest monthly reading since January at 0.511% month-on-month. These figures were reported by Finnhub, Bloomberg Markets, and CNBC TOP.
Following the release, market-implied probability of a Federal Reserve rate increase at its next policy meeting rose from 68% to 82%, as reported by Finnhub. The US dollar strengthened on the core beat.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) strengthened following the report, reflecting the dollar's direct sensitivity to Federal Reserve rate expectations driven by this inflation data. US Treasury instruments including TLT (long-duration Treasury bonds) and the 2-year and 10-year Treasury notes moved in response to the repriced rate path, as shorter-duration yields are particularly reactive to near-term Federal Reserve policy expectations.
No official Federal Reserve statement was issued in direct response to the data release. The report precedes the Federal Reserve's next scheduled policy meeting, at which market participants have now priced an 82% probability of a rate increase, up from 68% immediately prior to the CPI publication.
Sources: investinglive.com, Bloomberg Markets, Cnbc TOP