Australia's June 2024 CPI printed at 3.8% year-on-year, below the 4.0% consensus estimate, according to data reported by Finnhub and Bloomberg Markets on 29 July 2026. The monthly CPI reading fell 0.1%, against an expectation of a 0.2% rise. Trimmed mean and weighted mean core measures also came in marginally cooler than forecast, reinforcing the broad-based nature of the miss.
Following the release, market pricing for an RBA rate increase at the August meeting dropped to approximately 4% probability, down sharply from prior levels, as reported by Finnhub. Bloomberg Markets also noted that traders materially reduced bets on additional RBA rate increases for the remainder of the year in response to the softer core inflation figures.
AUDUSD, the primary exchange rate through which Australian monetary policy expectations are priced in currency markets, is directly affected by the shift in RBA rate pricing following this data release. The AU200 equity index, representing the broad Australian share market, is connected to the event through its sensitivity to domestic interest rate expectations.
RBA Governor Bullock had previously indicated uncertainty ahead of the policy meeting, identifying the inflation report as a key swing factor for the August decision, according to Finnhub. The June CPI outcome now forms the central data input for the RBA's near-term deliberations.
Sources: investinglive.com, Bloomberg Markets