US-Iran relations deteriorated sharply in early July 2026, with Iran striking three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 21% of global petroleum trade passes, per CNBC [Brief - 2026-07-10]. Crude oil surged 7% over five sessions as the incidents disrupted traffic in the waterway [Brief - 2026-07-10]. A liquefied natural gas carrier was additionally struck by a projectile near the Omani coast while exiting the strait during the Asian session on 7 July, an event that tested the durability of a prior US-Iran memorandum of understanding designed to prevent such attacks [Brief - 2026-07-07]. These developments follow a period of acute geopolitical stress that began in June 2026, when a direct military exchange between Israel and Iran drew in the United States and produced extreme volatility across crude oil prices [Brief - 2026-07-03].
As of the quarter ending 31 March 2026, Exxon Mobil reported trailing twelve-month revenue of $334.25 billion, representing year-over-year growth of 2.4% [SEC 10-Q - XOM - 2026-03-31]. Net income on a TTM basis stood at $25.31 billion, yielding a net margin of 7.57% [SEC 10-Q - XOM - 2026-03-31]. EPS declined 43.18% year-over-year, while the price-to-earnings ratio was recorded at 23.38 against a market capitalisation of approximately $575.7 billion [SEC 10-Q - XOM - 2026-03-31]. The company held $8.44 billion in cash against total debt of $37.63 billion as of the same date [SEC 10-Q - XOM - 2026-03-31].
Two notable institutional position changes motivated this report. Citadel, managed by Ken Griffin, added 61% to its XOM position in the most recent reporting period [SEC 13F - Citadel - Q2 2026]. Millennium Management, led by Izzy Englander, added 29% to its position over the same period [SEC 13F - Millennium - Q2 2026]. No insider transaction data was available for inclusion in this report.
The prevailing macro backdrop features a 10-year US Treasury yield of 4.54% and a 2-year yield of 4.16%, reflecting a normal yield curve configuration [FRED DGS10] [FRED DGS2]. The spread of 38 basis points between the two maturities indicates a modestly upward-sloping term structure, a configuration that has persisted through recent sessions of elevated geopolitical tension in global energy markets.