JPMorgan issued a revised assessment of the Iran conflict on 25 September 2026, stating it no longer holds a clear baseline for how the situation in oil markets resolves. Six months into the conflict, the bank noted that economic thresholds it had previously assumed would limit escalation have been crossed without producing an exit strategy. The assessment was reported by Oilprice.
The bank identified approximately 10 million barrels per day of oil supply as disrupted. This figure represents a substantial share of global daily consumption and reflects the cumulative impact of Strait of Hormuz flow restrictions and related regional supply losses.
Brent crude and WTI are the primary benchmark contracts directly affected by the disrupted supply volumes JPMorgan identified. Brent was reported at $105.65 per barrel on 25 September, up from $102 earlier in the week, while WTI stood at $93.11. US-listed energy producers and refiners — including Chevron (CVX), ConocoPhillips (COP), Marathon Petroleum (MPC), and Phillips 66 (PSX) — hold direct operational exposure to crude pricing movements driven by the supply disruption.
The JPMorgan statement coincides with reports of preliminary US-Iran discussions over a phased arrangement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for sanctions relief, though Finnhub reported both sides remain reluctant to surrender leverage, keeping sequencing of any agreement unresolved. Oilprice separately noted that Houthi attacks continued to raise concerns about Saudi supply security during the same period.
Sources: Oilprice, Bloomberg Markets, Marketwatch TOP, investinglive.com, CNBC, Cnbc TOP, news.google.com, Guardian Business